Actors John Cho and Issa Rae announced the nominations for next month’s 92nd Academy Awards yesterday morning. That’s given everyone a full day to calmly and rationally pour over and (over)analyze the picks. Now that we’ve had the chance to sit back and take in the choices, let’s take a look at some of what we’ll be seeing on February 9th.
Brent is going to come in with a more in-depth look at the categories and races, so this will be more of a quick initial reaction for a few of the categories. Keep in mind that the perceived favorite right now may not be come Oscar night. There are still major pre-cursor awards to give out. Some of those, particularly the various guild awards, help paint a clearer picture of what to expect on the big night. So with that, let’s run through some of the categories.
Best Picture
- 1917
- Ford v Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Joker
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Parasite
What missed: The Farewell, Knives Out, Uncut Gems
On a personal level, this is a great set of nominees. Parasite, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Marriage Story are my numbers 1-4 movies on the year. Jojo Rabbit is #7, Little Women #10, Ford v Ferrari #12, and The Irishman #19. But that’s not likely to shock anybody. All of these films were widely loved. It makes a very chalky year for Best Picture. Boring, maybe. But it seems like the voters got it right.
As of today, this seems like a tight race at the top. Anything can happen, especially with the preferential voting system used for Best Picture, but it feels like it’s between Once Upon a Tim in Hollywood, 1917, Parasite, and The Irishman, but with Joker still hanging around.
The chalk pick: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (but it’s close, very close)
The fun pick: Parasite
Director
- Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
- Sam Mendes, 1917
- Todd Phillips, Joker
- Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
- Quentin Tarantino, The Irishman
Who missed: Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
Unfortunately the early discourse surrounding the Oscars, and particularly this category, is the lack of diverse representation. I do believe Greta Gerwig should have taken the 5th spot here over Phillips, but it’s hard to argue against including the other four.
The chalk pick: Sam Mendes
The fun pick: Bong Joon-ho (if you’re already sensing a theme here, you should be)
Actress in a Leading Role
- Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
- Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
- Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
- Charlize Theron, Bombshell
- Renee Zellweger, Judy
Who missed: Awkwafina (The Farewell), Lupita Nyong’o (Us)
As soon as Judy released last September, everybody seemed ready to anoint Zellweger as the Best Actress winner. And while she is great in the role, I don’t think it should be an open-and-shut case. And call it a gut feeling, but this has similar vibes to Glenn Close last year.
Like Zellweger in Judy, Close gave a star performance in a movie (The Wife) that was decently well-received but didn’t have a wide audience. Close entered award season as the heavy favorite, winning every major award up until the BAFTAs, where she lost to eventual Oscar winner Olivia Colman. If Zellweger loses at either SAG or BAFTA, look for that winner to possibly become the Oscar favorite.
The chalk pick: Renee Zellweger
The fun pick: Saoirse Ronan
Actor in a Leading Role
- Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Adam Driver, Marriage Story
- Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
- Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Who missed: Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
There isn’t much to say here. This is Joaquin’s year. Bovada opened his odds at -1000 and I see no reason for that to change. It’s great to see Banderas get his first Oscar nomination for his deeply touching and heartfelt performance in Pain and Glory. It’s just too bad that it came in a year when he has no real chance to win. But just imagine the dulcet tones of Antonio Banderas giving an Oscar acceptance speech. That’s something everyone should be on board for.
The chalk pick: Joaquin Phoenix
The fun pick: Antonio Banderas
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
- Laura Dern, Marriage Story
- Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
- Florence Pugh, Little Women
- Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Who missed: Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell)
Jennifer Lopez missing out on a nomination here is one of the bigger storylines early in Oscar season. I personally wouldn’t have her in the top five, but her performance in Hustlers is arguably the best acting work she’s ever done. And Hustlers turned out to be way more popular than most thought it could be.
I’ve seen more than a few people suggest she should have been nominated not just because of her performance, but because she would have brought some much-needed star power to the night’s events. I see the thinking there, but that’s not reason enough to give someone a nomination. Quality of work should come first, and in this writer’s humble opinion, I think voters got it right in not nominating Lopez.
Robbie receives a nomination for her role in Bombshell, after getting early supporting buzz for her portrayal of Sharon Tate in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I would personally rank the Hollywood role slightly higher, but she was great in both, so I have no issue with the Bombshell nomination.
Scarlett Johansson might have one of the more interesting Oscar nights, with this being her second acting nomination this year (also for Lead Actress for Marriage Story). She wasn’t going to be the favorite for either one, but could the double dipping end up hurting her, with each effectively cancelling out the other?
It all may not matter much, as Laura Dern seems to have this one all but locked up. But like Zellweger, if she stumbles at SAG and/or BAFTA, things could get interesting.
The chalk pick: Laura Dern
The fun pick: Florence Pugh
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
- Al Pacino, The Irishman
- Joe Pesci, The Irishman
- Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who missed: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Song Kang-ho (Parasite), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit)
I would have loved to see Song Kang-ho nab a nomination here for his work in Parasite. Not only would it have been deserved, but it would have elevated Parasite’s chances at winning Best Picture. But even still, this is a fun group of nominees, even though it’s starting off as another “over as soon as it began” race, with Pitt the heavy presumptive favorite. But to see any of these guys get up there on Oscar night and make a speech is going to be a treat.
The chalk pick: Brad Pitt
The fun pick: Joe Pesci
Original Screenplay
- Knives Out, Ryan Johnson
- Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
- 1917, Same Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
- Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
- Parasite, Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin Won
Very happy to see Knives Out get some recognition. It probably just missed out on a Best Picture nomination and Rian Johnson likely was at least a few directors back of grabbing a nomination there. But for such a fun and well-liked film, it would have been a shame to see it get completely shut out.
As great as 1917 is, I didn’t think the script was anything special. It was the spectacle, scope, and scale of it all that made it great. Seeing something like Waves, Honey Boy, or Booksmart sneak in here would have been great.
The chalk pick: Quentin Tarantino
The fun pick: Bong Joon-Ho (duh)
Adapted Screenplay
- The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
- Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
- Joker, Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
- Little Women, Greta Gerwig
- The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Ecstatic to see Gerwig nominated here. It doesn’t quite make up for missing out on a director nomination, but it helps.
The chalk pick: Hard to say right now. The Golden Globes only presents one screenplay award, which Hollywood won. But The Irishman and The Two Popes both received nominations. All five here earned nominations for Critics Choice Adapted Screenplay, with Little Women winning. I’ll give the slight edge to Little Women for now.
The fun pick: Taika Waititi
Animated Feature
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
- I Lost My Body
- Klaus
- Missing Link
- Toy Story 4
Frozen 2 missing out on a nomination is the big news in this category. And I’m more than okay with that. The five nominees made up five of my top six animated films from last year, with Frozen 2 a decent ways behind them. This has been one of the easier categories to predict, with one film typically dominating the pre-Oscar awards. But it’s fair to point out that the Golden Globes and Critics Choice did result in different winners already this year. But my money would be on Toy Story 4 taking control the rest of the way, culminating in becoming the second in the series to win the Best Animated Feature Oscar (the award had not yet been introduced when Toy Story and Toy Story 2 came out).
The chalk pick: Toy Story 4
The fun pick: Any of them, honestly
Quick Hits
- Knew it was the longest of long shots, but on a personal level I’m still devastated Waves couldn’t make any…waves (sorry) in the Oscars
- Score, Cinematography, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor/Actress, numerous categories where it would have been a worthy nominee
- Hildur Guðnadóttir (Joker) seems ready to run away with Original Score; if any betting sites have opened bets for her and the odds are about -200 or better, I might jump on it; likely the best you’ll see
- Same goes for Bombshell and Makeup and Hairstyling
- While I want Parasite to win all awards it’s nominated for, I will be more than okay with Pain and Glory winning International Feature if it means Parasite wins Best Picture
- Best Song is incredibly weak this year
- “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” should win handily
- I hope this is a safe space to say this, but thank goodness “Spirit” was not nominated; I think that song is legitimately bad
- While I wasn’t expecting Endgame to pile up the nominations, I thought it could have gotten more than the one it did for Visual Effects
- Original Score, Sound Editing and/Mixing, Costume Design all felt like reasonable possibilities
And there we have it, some (okay, not so) quick thoughts on the Oscar nominations. We’ll be here with continuing coverage, so be sure to follow Reel Big Films on Twitter and Instagram to stay up to date!
The 92nd Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, February 9th, airing on ABC, with coverage beginning at 6:30 PM/5:30 PM CT.